New MPP tracker reveals heavy industry transition has started but needs to accelerate sevenfold to meet 2030 climate targets

  • Tracker maps announcements, investment decisions and operations of net-zero-aligned projects across critical industrial sectors globally.
  • The pipeline is growing, but rapid acceleration is needed as almost 600 decarbonised plants must break ground in the coming years to meet 2030 net-zero targets.
  • MPP urges collective action by governments, companies, and financial institutions to unlock investment barriers and fast-track progress.

LONDON, April 17, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Mission Possible Partnership (MPP) launches its Global Project Tracker today, shedding new light on the state of transition in seven heavy industry and transport sectors, which account for 30% of global carbon emissions. It reveals a growing pipeline of net-zero-aligned projects across the ‘harder-to-abate’ sectors. However, it warns that rapid acceleration is needed to bring almost 600 decarbonised plants under construction in the coming years to meet deployment goals for a 1.5oC aligned trajectory.

Industrial decarbonisation has started but needs to accelerate to meet 2030 targets.
Industrial decarbonisation has started but needs to accelerate to meet 2030 targets.

The Tracker shows that 68 commercial-scale net-zero-aligned plants are currently operational, and 42 are at Final Investment Decision (FID). More than 700 must be up and running by 2030, according to MPP’s industry-backed milestones for decarbonising key sectors in line with the Paris-aligned ambition. To meet these deadlines, FID must be reached within three years to enable construction this decade. Bridging the current gap and scaling near-zero solutions adequately requires an almost seven-fold increase in the number of plants that have achieved FID to date.

The encouraging news is that companies have issued a wave of project announcements in the past 12 months, indicating growing industry ambition and a shift towards more favourable conditions emerging in some locations. Plans to build 473 commercial-scale decarbonisation plants are identified on the Tracker, which, if brought to FID, would reduce the gap by 80%.

However, MPP analysis indicates that many projects struggle to get from announcement to FID, meaning the current pace of progress is too slow. Various economic and policy barriers can be identified that stall projects. 595 plants must be brought to FID across aluminium, cement, chemicals, steel, aviation, and shipping within three years to meet 2030 deployment goals. The trucking target measures zero-emission trucks on the road, and millions more need to be operational this decade.

MPP’s Tracker uses aggregated data to chart investment progress into net-zero-aligned projects, with quarterly updates. It is the first publicly available tool combining seven sectors and visually depicting the pipeline, indicating a project’s status ranging from announced to FID and operational.

Today’s flagship projects prove that technologies are maturing, and announced projects show the opportunity to create critical mass and realise new markets for clean industrial products. However, economic and policy barriers must rapidly be tackled to create widespread bankability for announced projects whilst encouraging the development of many more.

Evidence is emerging on the interventions that can accelerate the pipeline. Tracker analysis shows key levers that can inspire further action:

  • Government policies can create demand and bridge the green premium.
  • Support for clean technology deployment can de-risk investment.
  • Co-location of projects and enabling infrastructure brings synergies.

Dick Benschop, Interim Chief Executive Officer of the Mission Possible Partnership, said: “We have a new level of insight into the decarbonisation trajectory for heavy industry and transport – and the rising ambition of industry is clear. But with the planet’s future hanging in the balance, there is no hiding from the challenges ahead. We need to rapidly unlock the barriers that can transform plans into plants. MPP is committed to addressing the collective action needed, and we urge all stakeholders to contribute.” 

Christiana Figueres, Co-Founder, Global Optimism: “Realising the Paris Agreement means the so-called ‘hard-to-abate’ sectors ‘have-to-abate’. MPP’s Global Project Tracker demonstrates that they already can and – in many cases – ‘want-to-abate’. Exponential transformation is now within reach across heavy industry, shipping, aviation and trucking. But, while the MPP project pipeline provides a clear pathway for progress, success is not inevitable. Policymakers and investors must show courageous leadership at this crucial crossroads and make decisions that enable the have-to-abate sectors to move at the pace and scale required.”

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